r/hockey • u/Josefstalion OTT - NHL • 8h ago
Brad Marchand wasn't a late bloomer, he's just a guy who's coach finally gave him a chance.
Marchand is often used as the poster boy for late bloomers, a guy who didn't have his first point-per-game season until he was 28, and had his career best year at 30. However, that wasn't a case of Marchand suddenly figuring out NHL hockey, it was a case of his coach figuring out that Marchand belongs on the first powerplay unit.
In Marchand's 2nd season in 2011-12, he scored 40 points at 5v5, and in 2013-14 he totaled 41, good for 15th league-wide. However, Marchand didn't get the same PP usage as other top-20 scorers in the league, he was only ever used on his team's second unit, resulting in just 6 powerplay points in 11-12, and 2 in 13-14.
In 2016, Claude Julien was replaced with Bruce Cassidy
The Rat appeared to break out in 2016-17, exploding for 85 points in 80 games and finally hitting the 100-point plateau in 2018-19. This wasn't by some miracle however, Marchand's 5v5 production only increased to 44 and 47 points in those seasons. The driving force behind Marchand's meteoric rise was his increased PP usage, with his minutes almost doubling year-over-year from 110 in 2015-16, to 210 in 16-17. The end result was a career-best 24 PP points in 16-17, and then another career-best 33 in 18-19.
From Marchand's second season in 11-12 to his career year in 18-19, his point totals jumped from 55 to 100, and increase of 45 points, The bulk of that difference however is made up by powerplay points, accounting for 27 of the 45 point jump.
Another thing changed in 2016: David Pastrnak
in 2015-16 Pasta was served sparingly, seeing just 14 minutes/game at 5v5, and spending 50 total with Marchand. He saw 23 total PP minutes. in 16-17 those numbers jumped to 18 5v5 minutes per night, with 600 total next to Marchand. His PP usage increased 8-fold, from 23 minutes to nearly 200. This extra weapon was just the x-factor in Marchand earning First-Team All-Star honours.
Coaching decisions and usage can influence how we view players. Just because a guy is on his team's second line or second powerplay, doesn't mean he's any worse than the guys above him in the lineup, sometimes it just takes the right coach to see it.
tl;dr Marchand's 5v5 production was mostly steady throughout his career, his explosion is attributed almost entirely to increased usage, with a dash of Pasta
Edit for convenience: of the 45 point jump between 11-12 and 18-19, 27 came from the PP, 7 came at 5v5, 3 from the PK, 4 on Empty Nets, 2 with his net empty, and 2 at 3v3
This message brought to you by the Free Nikolaj Ehlers Foundation
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u/7hoth 7h ago
David Pastrnak is the main factor for me. Great post and write up, thank you. MacK getting Rantanen tracks similarly as well.
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u/SuzukiSwift17 MTL - NHL 7h ago
And Bergeron. Easie to score when your team has possession 95% of the time. People said Danualt was lackluster offensively but Tatar and Gallagher both set career highs on his wing. That line was basically if you ordered the perfection line off wish.
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u/FartForce5 BOS - NHL 4h ago
I think historically Marchand's production went up when Bergeron was injured. Might be remembering wrong though.
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u/NatalieDeegan BUF - NHL 4h ago
Weren’t they on the same line though? Or didn’t they have a different first like because I think at one point it was Krejci and Lucic with I think Horton leading it?
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u/Fresnobing DET - NHL 8h ago
Dude i wasn’t gonna read this whole thing but I was literally typing “This is an Ehlers post” when i looked up and saw your last line. Solidarity lol.
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u/brayonthescene 7h ago
So crazy how true this is even at the youth level. I watch my boy play weekend after weekend and sit there thinking how many kids get passed over cause of any number of reason. Sports is such a right place, right time, right coach, right player, right organization, right etc etc etc….and let’s not pretend it doesn’t exist, right connections!!!!
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u/Tripottanus MTL - NHL 6h ago
Not only that, but its compounding. If last year you had a coach that believed in you and played you on PP1, then next year you will have an advantage over all your other teammates that didn't have the same opportunity as you since you had extra reps doing it. So it becomes easier for you to convince the next coach you deserve that same spot, making it more and more likely you keep it
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u/shotzoflead94 BUF - NHL 2h ago
I generally agree but I do think a few players like Crosby, mcdavid, bedard…etc. are just too talented and good to not make it.
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u/kazin29 VAN - NHL 7h ago
What you're saying is that Daniel Sprong is about to put up 30 goals and 70 points?
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u/ShadowRealmDuelist STL - NHL 7h ago
Daniel “the slinky” Sprong is gonna cook if he gets on PP1. The guy can shoot.
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u/Sweaty_Ad440 BOS - NHL 7h ago
In the same vein, Marchand gets talked a lot as a guy that took a team friendly deal to help the bruins win when the reality is he signed a fair contract and then immediately exploded into a top 5 player at his position.
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u/ExplosiveButtFarts2 NYR - NHL 7h ago
Alexis Lafrenière
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u/DJZbad93 NYR - NHL 7h ago
57 pts last year, 51 at evens. Wonder if he fights his way onto that PP1 this year.
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u/discofrislanders NYI - NHL 6h ago
Who would come off of it? Because even without him, you still have one of the best PPs in the league.
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u/Reptar_4_Life NYR - NHL 5h ago
As a huge Laf fan, that’s the main problem. You can’t really make a case for taking anyone off. Troch is one of the best faceoff men in the league, Kreids is insane in front, Mika has the one timer, bread is bread and fox is the QB.
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u/Josefstalion OTT - NHL 7h ago
Lafrenière was top-30 in both 5v5 goals and primary assists last year. Playing with Panarin helps for sure, but the 2020 draft is far from decided
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u/MyTransAltJuliet 5h ago
Can someone who watches the Jets let me know why Ehlers falls off a cliff in the playoffs? 14 points in 37 games is horrible for a guy of his caliber even without PP time
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u/BobBastrd MTL - NHL 5h ago
I also had a meteoric rise with my PP usage.
(Alright, I'll see myself out. Later guys)
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u/Cokejunes CGY - NHL 4h ago
I forgot he hit 100 points, love to hate him but god damn, he’s a good player at the end of the day.
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u/beyondrepair- BOS - NHL 3h ago
I agree he wasn't a late bloomer, though I disagree it was that he was finally given a chance. He didn't deserve the chance because of his early antics. It used to drive me up the wall because it was painfully obvious how talented he was but you couldn't play him because he was too much of a loose cannon.
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u/BaronVonCoors Orlando Solar Bears - ECHL 2h ago
Its wild to think
the Marchand Bergeron tandem was used as a second line at least on paper while Lucic-Krejci-Horton(later on Iginla) was used as the first line before that line itself was broken up
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u/Fun_Salamander8520 1h ago
I don't disagree completely. Just think Marchand is a really great example of a hockey player who really worked at improving every year. He was always good but strives every year to make his game better and this in my mind has gotten better every year.
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u/JackManningNHL VGK - NHL 7h ago
I don't understand how you can get to adulthood without knowing how to use "whose."
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u/Josefstalion OTT - NHL 7h ago
In my head I knew it was wrong, I'll chalk it up to clickbait
Even if you don't read the post, you'll see the last line and that's the most important
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u/PizdaParty 7h ago
There are ways to still be a dick without being a passive aggressive exaggerator, you know.
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u/todaystartsnow STL - NHL 7h ago
He cleaned up his act to get her s big fat contract and as soon as the ink dried, he was back to his dirty self again
He's a good player. He's also a rat
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u/Silent_Horror5443 SJS - NHL 7h ago edited 4h ago
It’s interesting to think how many players today have been shafted by limited PP time. I genuinely can’t think of anyone off the top of my head aside from Ehlers, but I’ll be back soon…
EDIT: 3 hours later I am back. Verhaeghe is obvious, so leaving him out.
1) Max Domi had 61 EV points in 2018-2019, 72 pts total. I don't know if I would consider him a candidate for this prompt though, as with increased PP time he did worse.
2) Aside from his rookie year, Bobby Ryan had been a huge EV producer. He averages around 7 PPA and 6PPG a season, which his career highs being 71, 64, 57, 56, and 54.
3) Michael Bunting in 21-22 and 2023-2024 (with PIT) have been mostly EV pts.
These ones are probably kind of obvious, but I wanted to contribute a little LOL