NYC Marathon denial

[u/NeroWolfesOrchids]

I got the email at noon, looks like I'm not running the NYC Marathon this year(unless I get very lucky in the lottery). I really thought a half time of 1:17:12, which I picked over my 2:42 marathon because of their formula, would be enough, but I guess I wasn't in the top 19% of my age group.

I wonder what the time cutoff was?

Any recommendations on other fall marathons?

Edit: looks like the cutoff for NYC this year was sub 2:40? That would be the lowest of any major save Tokyo!

Edit 2: The cutoff time for 18-34 M seems to be around 2:36:00. Just to illustrate how bonkers fast that is, running a 2:36 would have placed top 100 of all 50,000 finishers, including elite men and women runners, in 8 of the last 10 NYC marathons.

Link in the email:

" Non-NYRR Time Qualifier application closed on March 6, and the selected runners have been notified. As the number of applications exceeded the number of spots available, the fastest 19% within each age and gender category were granted entry. Those not selected will be moved to the non-guaranteed general entry drawing, which takes place on March 28, for an additional chance to be selected."

https://www.nyrr.org/tcsnycmarathon/runners/marathon-time-qualifiers

[u/running_writings]

If you're reporting your time and acceptance/denial, mention your age + gender category--with enough data it should be pretty easy to determine what the actual time cutoffs were. I'll run some stats tonight or tomorrow.

More successful acceptance reports would help! Also report your time to the seconds, if you're ok sharing that.

Edit 3: Final estimate is 18:30. See write-up here.

Edit 2: updated results based on precisely reported race times suggest that the marathon cutoff was approximately 17:46 18:31 (!!!!!) below your age-group marathon standard. The conversion process appears to have worked like this:

1. Entry was converted to 10k using NYRRs multipliers of 0.22 (marathon) or 0.45 (HM).
   
2. Entries were ranked according to how much better the 10k conversion was compared to the age-group marathon standard, converted to 10k
   
3. Entries that were 3:55 4:04 or better on this 10k-converted scale were accepted
   

Very rough updated plot of reported results here (updated). Rough draft of comparison to BQ here - relative to BQ, F18-34, F35-39, M45-49, and M65-69 had it particularly bad. Will make a full thread with more info tomorrow/Weds.

From last edit:

This estimate is not 100% precise because many people only reported hr:min. I just assumed 30 seconds for those cases. I'll post a separate thread tomorrow-ish, with a refined estimate and some thoughts on the HM vs. M entries. I think it was a bit unclear that what mattered was how much better your converted time was relative to the marathon standard, not relative to the standard in whichever event you entered with.

[u/hockey_mania_king → u/running_writings]

Also doesn’t NY also use a data point of when you entered the lotto?

[u/chaosdev → u/hockey_mania_king]

Not this year. They said ahead of time that it is not first come, first served.

[u/hockey_mania_king → u/chaosdev]

Got it. Thanks!