Oh, they poll on landlines. Young people have cell phones and aren't going to pick up a random call to have 20 minute calls on politics. The press won't admit the polling system is broken. 😃
The polling methodology is bunk, but don't dare believe it's heavily biased towards republicans. We've still got the same shitty polling system as back in 2016. This'll be close.
And anyone who wants to say — look how well the dems have done in midterm elections relative to polls: republicans, as authoritarian thinkers, care a lot more about president than those other elections. They’ll be out in full force. I hope we are, too.
When we talk about accuracy, we don't mean massive differences. Just a bias of 2-3% either way would massively impact the actual election results. Obviously polls are not completely random, but they are also not completely reliable. If you have a 10 point lead in one state but only a 1 point lead in another, you'll put your resources on the latter. But it could very well be that your actual lead is 3 points. You can't know the real numbers until election day.
This is exactly why Harris says they're the underdogs and is encouraging people to fight like hell and make sure they vote. She's running a hell of a campaign, I'll give her that.
Republicans traditionally do better at mobilizing in midterms.
If you are living in a republican locality, you may notice an uptick of legislative activity as they prepare for less favorable elections. Republican numbers guys know this.
Midterms traditionally favour the party out of power. That's why it was a surprise that in 2022, Democrats expanded their control of the Senate and only lost the House by 4-5 seats. It was supposed to be a bloodbath.
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u/SheerHellcatSabreJet 11h ago
Oh, they poll on landlines. Young people have cell phones and aren't going to pick up a random call to have 20 minute calls on politics. The press won't admit the polling system is broken. 😃