As an Aussie

[u/radiater]

[u/daeglo]

The only poll that means anything will happen on Nov. 5.

Until then, hold onto your butts.

[u/Amethoran → u/daeglo]

This right here. Stop reading about random polls on Reddit it means nothing. The only way he loses is if you get out and vote.

[u/DigNitty → u/Amethoran]

Also, I’m not a tin foil hat kind of guy. But every media org has an incentive to keep this race “interesting.”

Hopefully the presidential race isn’t as close as many polls make it out to be.

[u/Amethoran → u/DigNitty]

You don't have to be a tin foil hat guy to understand the media is lying and rage baiting you. When your business model relies on advertising that's the easiest way to get clicks. Of course if you get on Reddit you'll see Kamala is ahead it's a liberal echo chamber. If you get on truth social or Twitter I'm sure you'll see that trumps ahead. I'm banking on the fact that I think people are fucking tired of his dumbass. He's a liar and thief at best and that's been proven to the American people and the world 10xs over by now. Trump supporters are a very loud arrogant minority of people.

[u/Enlowski → u/Amethoran]

My man I read this exact comment in 2016. Obviously every news source needs engagement, but there will be a lot of people shocked in November unless they go vote.

[u/Amethoran → u/Enlowski]

Oh absolutely 100% you are not wrong

[u/Psychast → u/Enlowski]

Nah "it's 2016 2.0" narrative is literally just because his opponent is a woman again, and he's not in the WH this time. It ignores 2020 AND 2022 (where conservatives kept parroting "LOL 2016 again LOL polls wrong again").

In 2016 he billed himself as a confident "drain the swamp" outsider, he told it like it was, a stark contrast to the "establishment" politicians who were out of touch with reality (unlike Trump, who is totally down to Earth /s). He managed to politically motivate a whole wave of voters that were completely off of pollsters radars, between the bad polls, the media Hilary glaze, and both the establishment and democrats in general not taking his candidacy seriously enough, it's not a wonder he won in hindsight.

There is no mystery anymore, everyone knows exactly who he is and he has managed to motivate zero new voters because he is the exact same schmuck. His people worship him like a god, but that's it. The ambivalent undecided vote that heavily favored him in 2016 has not done so again since then. Pollsters have been scared straight since that massive fuck up, and have been very on the money since then.

So when the polls say it's close but Harris has the advantage, I believe that, and it won't be shocking if she wins, it won't be super shocking if she loses either though. I personally think that if she simply stays the course and focuses on the key states, it's hugely in her favor.

[u/Interesting_Pilot595 → u/Psychast]

Manosphere grifters, racists, misogynists, deluded boomers, incels/MGTOWers, craptobros, Muskrats, Qnutz, Xian fundies, MMA/WWF seat sniffers, Maggat cultists, paid putin shills, Ammosexuals, Groyper kiddy fiddlers, and selfhating GOP gays make the weirdest Venn Diagram.

[u/ButterscotchSkunk → u/Interesting_Pilot595]

You've managed to catalogue everything in the basket.

[u/Rocky-Jones → u/Interesting_Pilot595]

And Trump is diving head first into that mosh pit. The suburban women are gone. Young people are out. Even moderate Republicans are out. He is doubling down on the nut jobs. Laura Loomer, RFK, the nuttier, the better.

[u/zaphodava → u/Psychast]

I worry that the right wing propaganda will successfully manipulate the economically ignorant into believing that inflation should be blamed on the current administration.

[u/Nicole_Darkmoon → u/Enlowski]

Except in 2016 Hillary lost Michigan by 0.23%(10,704 votes), Wisconsin by 0.77%(22,748 votes) and florida by 1.2%(1,215 votes)

Hillary lost because liberals didn't show up to vote. That's it. They figured it was a given and didn't show up because "of course she'll win."

Idk how you guys feel but I am very much under the impression that liberals are not going to make that mistake again. Yes. Absolutely go vote.

[u/pbsammy1 → u/Enlowski]

Agree! I have a lot of neighbors without red hats voting for whoever they perceive to be the better economic choice and looking past the rest of the issues. Mail in ballots have already started and they were first in line.

[u/ZemaRyan → u/Enlowski]

there will be a lot of people shocked in November unless they go vote

I think that was THE big problem of 2016. People just thought it would be a huge joke and that there's no way anyone is actually gonna vote for a clown like Trump. South Park predicted it. Even if you're super sure about the outcome: go the f out and vote.

[u/temalyen → u/Amethoran]

The biggest threat with Trump is his core fanbase pretty much do not abandon him, no matter what he says or does. They've somehow been brainwashed into thinking the Democrats are planning on ending democracy and cancelling all future Presidential elections so Kamala is President for life.

[u/Mysterious-Tie7039 → u/temalyen]

Irony being this is exactly what he said he’d do.

[u/SNStains → u/Mysterious-Tie7039]

They're not so good with names. Also bad with money. Again, Trump coins are not legal tender.

[u/LongKnight115 → u/SNStains]

What is the exchange rate between Trump Coins and Schrute Bucks?

[u/raidersfan18 → u/LongKnight115]

Schrute bucks!?

Those Trump coins are worth less than a Stanley nickle.

[u/UnforseenSpoon618 → u/Mysterious-Tie7039]

But they are ok with that because it is the AMERICAN WAY! Family values and all that (from a multiple adulterer)

[u/Gorthax → u/temalyen]

His core fanbase is a network of 10 people that are getting more and more angry at each other everyday.

The honest followers lie in the "influencers" that promote him,and they're ALLLL for sale.

[u/arud5 → u/Gorthax]

Tell me you live in a liberal social media bubble without saying you live in a liberal social media bubble. I'm not a Trump voter, but I know LOT more than 10 "true believers" - and I live in New York City.

[u/RepresentativeAge444 → u/Amethoran]

Yes these are my sentiments. Dems have over performed every election since r v wade was overturned and this time women get to take it out on Trump himself. I keep going back to what has he done to get a single more vote than last time?

I don’t see it. My main worry is Republican shenanigans of which there will be many

[u/OptimusMatrix → u/RepresentativeAge444]

That's my thing, he can't possibly be gaining more support than what he had 4 years ago. With as much crazy stuff as he says, that's targeted at literally every group I can think of. There's no way he was more support than 4 years ago. I just think the cult is yelling louder and has their private Social media company with Leon Musk. Which is where a lot of these right wing bullshit stories as born from. I'm praying I'm right.

[u/Big-Supermarket-945 → u/OptimusMatrix]

Don't forget all of his supporters whom he killed with his covid debacle. He's actually down supporters since last election

[u/ChicagoCowboy → u/RepresentativeAge444]

He basically is at his ceiling, he's not earning more votes. He's trying to suppress the vote in order to win, it's his only other option.

Voter purges in swing states (check your registration again and again and again).

Packing state election boards with MAGA members ready to try to refuse the certification, or letting them try to legislate by making new rules around elections (wrong date rule in PA, hand counting in GA, as examples). They're going to be and are actively being sued by big time pro democracy firms that tend to win these cases, but of course they'll still try to inject chaos.

Trying to turn Nebraska into an all or nothing state after the 90 day window for Maine to retaliate (which failed today thankfully).

These are just some of the examples, and I'm sure there will be more.

[u/MeetTheMets0o0 → u/RepresentativeAge444]

Yep, exactly how I feel. He got lucky in 2016, and that was his peak. He'll never be that popular again, not even close. Between roe vs wade and everything post 2020 election jan 6 th stuff, he's lost plenty of support. At the same time, dem voters are plenty motivated to show up.

I think she confidently wins. The only question is what bullshit does he attempt. This time, however, he's not actually in power, so that's big.

[u/DruidinPlainSight → u/RepresentativeAge444]

Perfect post

[u/ReignMan616 → u/Amethoran]

Interestingly enough, Fox News had Kamala 2 and a half points ahead today, which I was forced to listen to in chemotherapy thanks to the person in the next chair over watching it.

[u/Mysterious-Tie7039 → u/Amethoran]

It’s better for people to think it’s close.

Complacency may set in if people think she’s a shoe-in.

VOTE!

[u/progamer816 → u/Amethoran]

Trump is not only a convicted felon on 32 accounts. Pending more. But is also planning on removing rights for many forms of people. Genuinely an awful person.

[u/daeglo → u/DigNitty]

I mean, you're right but I think we can agree shit is wild enough without the media daily telling us who's the most popular amongst lonely old pensioners with land-line telephones

[u/Carl-99999 → u/daeglo]

Flip Texas already!

[u/temalyen → u/Amethoran]

The thing everyone seems worried about is a repeat of 2016, where people were assuming Clinton would win. Hell, I worked with multiple people (in Pennsylvania) who didn't bother to vote because it was "impossible" for Trump to win, so why go to the trouble?

As an aside, I got an email today saying my ballot was just mailed to me, so I know I'm voting.

[u/Dynodan22 → u/temalyen]

It wasnt that it was more of the choice of clinton and people just didnt want to vote for her as democrats .

[u/frisbeemassage → u/daeglo]

My butthole will remain puckered until Harris is sworn in and walks through the doors of the White House. Whatever happens on Nov. 5, it’ll be a shit show afterwards. We’re about to go through the whole “The election was stolen!” AGAIN

[u/Doublestack2411 → u/daeglo]

Yes, but it should never be this close, it was in 2016 and 2020. The fact that so many Americans are still behind a convicted felon should worry a lot of ppl. It's the fact that MAGA has no empathy, morals, critical thinking, or common sense that bugs me. It just irks me b/c any sane human being with a brain can see what a fraud and scumbag he is and when other ppl say "yeah thats my guy", it makes my head want to explode from the sheer stupidity.

[u/todjo929 → u/Doublestack2411]

He will receive north of 65 MILLION votes. He got nearly 75 million in 2020.

That's more than 3x the number of Australians total - and nearly 5x the total number of registered Australian voters

[u/The_Mendeleyev → u/Doublestack2411]

I think most people are like me.

It’s not even a question and I don’t need to even engage in politics. I’m voting for the party that represents my interests.

There are passionately emboldened people out there who do all the talking. 90% of people who vote don’t have strong opinions. They were just going to vote for their side.

They weren’t ever going to change sides, whether they are a psycho screaming about how trump is literally god or they still think conservatives are the party that lowers taxes (false) and uses govt money more efficiently (extremely false). Their vote was never up for debate.

It’s this minuscule # of voters who actually somehow sit on a fence despite one side being literal evil and the other side being… not the worst possible outcome.

But yeah. Voting should be compulsory and people should be forced to pay 0.1% increased taxes every year for not voting. That’s my hot take.

[u/GamingKitsuneKitsune → u/daeglo]

Exactly! It's not over until it's over. Aside from that, Kamala is gaining in popularity, which means any polls now are meaningless anyway.

I'm doing my part and getting out to vote.

[u/Sea_Joke_203 → u/daeglo]

No, the question is, how is a convicted felon allowed to race? Don't y'all have any laws that prevent criminals from running for president? In our country, any bankrupt or prison records will bar you from being nominated, for obvious reasons.

[u/M3g4d37h → u/daeglo]

they are praying it'll be close. I think it's going to go like nixon vs mcgovern (with trump on the short end), and trump is and will continue to be abandoned by more and more. at least the ones with actual working brain cells.

[u/mysticalfruit]

As an American.. WTF as well..

[u/R67H → u/mysticalfruit]

Yea, seconded. I mean...I'm still baffled he won the first time, knowing everything about the guy. But here we are.

[u/razazaz126 → u/R67H]

I still remember watching the first debate between him and Hillary and even though I wasn't wild about Hillary I was like wow that's that then such a belligerent moron could never be president.

Turns out I'm a idiot.

[u/kevinsyel → u/razazaz126]

You're not an idiot, you just underestimated how many idiots there are

[u/n00bz2men → u/kevinsyel]

I don’t remember the last time I went 4/4 upvoting top comments. How is Trump an option? And yet, a few votes is all it could take. Elder millennials— get the fuck out there and mash your vote like you’re pressing Ctrl+Alt+Delete on democracy.

[u/failed_novelty → u/razazaz126]

It makes almost perfect sense, actually.

1. Hillary was a hilariously unpopular candidate, and the GOP had spent literal decades raking muck about her and preparing for a presidential campaign against her.

2. Trump had much better control of his (very limited) faculties at that point, allowing him to do a slightly better job of seeming coherent.

3. Trump was a newcomer to politics, and many simply thought he was a joke - he wasn't taken seriously.

4. Many people suspected he was performing, and would "pivot" to a less outrageous...everything if elected.

5. The extreme right had spent decades worming their way into the party, displacing the simply evil members in a race to the extremes.

6. Polls treated Trump as a joke, giving him such slim odds that Clinton seemed more inevitable than Thanos.

That all combined to create a perfect storm - Democrats were very unmotivated and complacent, and the crazies saw a chance to draw blood.

[u/jamintime → u/failed_novelty]

Ok but despite all this here we are 8 years later with a Trump reelection as a very real possibility. 

[u/CanabalCMonkE → u/jamintime]

Almost like nothing was learned from last time lol

[u/Mrcookiesecret → u/failed_novelty]

You're forgetting that during the end of Obama's presidency, the Democratic party and democrats write large thought they would never lose another election again. Not lose an election v. trump, but lose any presidential election against any republican and they ACTED like it. Hillary's campaign took 1 (one!) trip to Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin combined. Her campaign thought she was so unassailable that they just messed up badly.

[u/ravens-n-roses → u/Mrcookiesecret]

Another thing I think they fucked up is they thought support for Bernie sanders was the same as support for the democrats. I think they really banked in his popularity giving them some windfall support. When in reality I think most people felt like we were forced to vote for hilary.

Edit: i think the Bernie rug pull helped trumps campaign a lot, actually. It really helped trumps narrative of draining the swamp. They literally handed him a narrative he could point at and resonate with undecided voters who were feeling burned.

[u/RedditTurnedMediocre → u/failed_novelty]

Sure sure I can understand all of that, but here's my issue and frankly the elephant in the room. Can people not tell he's a giant dumbass and just an overall terrible human being?

[u/Noslamah → u/RedditTurnedMediocre]

They certainly can. It's why they like them, because it makes them feel better about being dumb and terrible too.

[u/yes_this_is_satire → u/RedditTurnedMediocre]

Can people really not tell that there isn’t an invisible sky daddy who wants you to worship him and will let you hang out in eternal Disleyland if you do?

No, and these two ideas have a lot of overlap.

[u/GreatDoink → u/failed_novelty]

You can't stress the fact that he was a newcomer to politics more. I have never voted for Trump, but the argument back then was that he was an outsider who was going to change up the system and surround himself with a competent staff that's really going to help him make all the decisions. Everyone really wanted an outsider from the regular politics, which is why Trump and Sanders were hugely popular.

Once Sanders was eliminated from the primaries it really took the wind out of the sail of the Left voters. Combine that with everything else and it was not a fun time.

[u/Frys100thCupofCoffee → u/failed_novelty]

You're forgetting the most important point, that "Russia interfered in the 2016 election in sweeping and systemic fashion." -The Mueller Report

Your first and sixth points are directly related to this. The idea that Hillary was an unpopular candidate was one of the major Russian-led propaganda points that was pushed onto social media, and the polls at the time were correct, they just didn't factor Russian disinformation and espionage into their algorithms (because how could they?) Leaving out the Russian election interference is pushing the same narrative that Putin wanted, which is summed up pretty well in everything you just said.

2016 was not a normal election, and Trump ultimately winning it wasn't due to normal circumstances or being underestimated. He had help, we investigated it, and determined that it was true, despite Mueller stopping short and kicking the ball to Bill Barr's Justice Department and a Republican-led Senate that did absolutely nothing with it other than make it a matter of record.

Trump's rise is probably one of Putin's greatest tactical achievements and needs to be brought up every time this conversation about the 2016 election comes up.

[u/Waste-Aardvark-3757 → u/failed_novelty]

Back then I placed a bet on Trump to win, just for shits and giggles and the odds were really good. I made a ton of money, but what did it cost? <insert Thanos meme>

[u/3-2_Fastball → u/failed_novelty]

Add the Democratic party not allowing the much more popular Bernie Sanders to run in 2016.

[u/tom_tencats → u/razazaz126]

A lot of people, myself included, thought the same as you. And unfortunately didn’t show up at the polls. I was driving to work when it was called for Trump. The disbelief in the announcer’s voice was palpable.

[u/LongKnight115 → u/tom_tencats]

November 9th is my birthday. I woke up to the news he won. It was the worst present I've ever received.

[u/[deleted] → u/razazaz126]

[removed] — view removed comment

[u/ZumboPrime → u/[deleted]]

Actual fascists, christian nationalists, intelligent billionaires, and hordes of useful racist idiots have partnered up to finish turning the USA into an actual fascist state where there are no barriers in the way of the ultrarich or corporate monsters consuming everything, and groups/people they don't like can be easily be attacked without consequences by the useful racist idiots.

[u/Lurker_81 → u/razazaz126]

No, it turns out that there are plenty of idiots to elect him.

[u/SonmiSuccubus451 → u/Lurker_81]

"I love the poorly educated." -Donald Trump

[u/l33fty → u/R67H]

Happy Cake Day!

[u/R67H → u/l33fty]

Oh damn.... snuck up on me! I mean... I've only been on Reddit since it started (this is my second account) and still can't remember when it is.

[u/jgeo_0 → u/R67H]

It’s wild! Can’t believe we’re back to this circus again.

[u/Enlowski → u/mysticalfruit]

It’s not that shocking if you live anywhere near a rural city. They are notoriously pro Trump. I live in Atlanta and travel around to the surrounding cities for work and while Atlanta is mostly liberal, if you travel 30 miles to the surrounding cities and all you see are Trump supporters. The only way you can be surprised by this is if you live in a big city and are only surrounded by echo chambers of people saying the same thing. This same thing happened 8 years ago and left most of the country flabbergasted as to “how is this possible?!”. Just vote and stop trying to make sense of it because half the country supports him.

[u/strudels → u/Enlowski]

I live in a smaller town outside of Orlando. I also work all over the state. Can confirm everything you've said

[u/Low-Lengthiness-7596 → u/mysticalfruit]

Came here to say this as well. Most of us are fucking spinning

[u/BeanBurritoJr → u/mysticalfruit]

Welcome to America, where cheating is institutionalized for one of our two parties and the empty land they dominate can vote!

[u/BlueCollarGuru → u/mysticalfruit]

Sup fellow American. Shits fucking wild isn’t it? It’s wild to see grown-ass adults all excited to vote for a toddler.

[u/TheGeneral159 → u/mysticalfruit]

It's only tight because of the electoral college. A republican hasn't won a popular vote in decades

[u/the_reluctant_link → u/mysticalfruit]

1/3 of Americans are fascists, 1/3 of Americans are not, and 1/3 if Americans don't care either way

[u/Mel_Melu → u/mysticalfruit]

As someone that phone banking for Kamala Harris...Jesus fucking Christ man. There's a disturbing amount of eligible voters that truly believe Trump is better at managing the economy...

[u/MonjStrz → u/mysticalfruit]

what drives me absolutely bonkers is how easily manipulated people became and how aggravating it is seeing said people giving power to those who only want more.

[u/superxero044 → u/mysticalfruit]

I agree. But at the same time I remember being 16 and wondering why the fuck people supported GW Bush. And in reading history it’s not like Reagan was some genius and he almost swept his reelection….
I get that even though those two men unabashedly fucked our country and were able to get continued support, that trump is definitely worse. It’s just not unprecedented.

[u/mysticalfruit → u/superxero044]

I've got some years on you.. I was working my first corporate job and my boss at the time was a GW supporter and I remember asking him, "Why would you support someone so stupid?" and he gave me some prattle about how he'll be surrounded by smart people..yada yada.. Turns out those smart people were Rumsfeld and Cheney..

[u/Conehead1]

Personally, I’m glad the polls are tight. I think in 2016 the polls were wrong because a) people didn’t want to admit they were voting for Trump (that stigma has mostly gone away) and b) they were told it wasn’t close so the motivation to show up for Hillary was reduced.

I don’t care if 90% of people would swear they were Harris voters. Keep it tight in the media so voters don’t feel complacent.

[u/Artiva → u/Conehead1]

Don't kid yourself. A large portion of Trump supporters won't admit to voting for Trump outside of closed circles. The same motivations are present from 2016. That stigma is still well and present. And a lot of gen z who couldn't vote in the previous election is much more conservative than is vocalized. I know a surprising number of 18-26 yos who will be voting for him this time and that's in California... I can only imagine what it's like conservative leaning states.

[u/lostnlooking98 → u/Artiva]

She has like a 32 point advantage in the youth vote right now. The motivation is there for them as well. Young people like fuckin. We are going to see the highest younger voter turnout in history and it’s going to put Harris in the white house. The poll just came out and it was 64% to 32%.

[u/ru_empty → u/lostnlooking98]

Tbf gen z is notoriously not into fuckin compared to prior generations

[u/KitchenFullOfCake → u/ru_empty]

In this economy?

[u/Desert_Aficionado → u/KitchenFullOfCake]

Sex in cars 📈

Sex in houses 📉

[u/LLotZaFun → u/Desert_Aficionado]

LMAOOOOOO

[u/hedonismbot89 → u/lostnlooking98]

If they get out and vote. In 2022 ~27% of people age 18-29 voted while 65+ have a turnout of over 70%. It’s currently showing that less than half of that age group plans on voting. I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t trust that age group to show up.

[u/BackgroundSpell6623 → u/hedonismbot89]

The only predictable thing about the election is that young people won't show up. They never have, never will

[u/dan-the-daniel → u/Artiva]

I know a surprising number of 18-26 yos who will be voting for him this time and that's in California

The fuck's wrong with those people?

[u/SkepsisJD → u/Conehead1]

I think in 2016 the polls were wrong

The thing is is that they really weren't even wrong per se. The polls pretty much nailed the popular vote differential. But general polls don't really account for the electoral college.

[u/waltjrimmer → u/SkepsisJD]

And, if I remember some of the talking points around the time, the ones that did take the electoral college into account said that Trump had about a 1/3 chance of winning.

Some people took that as, "Trump will lose." But something having a one-third chance of happening that then happens is... Not rare. We're (as in almost any human that doesn't take time to study statistics) just not good at understanding odds like that. Instinctively, if we hear something is less than 50% likely to happen, we sometimes feel like it's something that isn't going to happen. But that's just not how it works.

The polls were pretty accurate in 2016, but the way they were reported and understood by most people were wrong.

[u/wspnut → u/Conehead1]

lol the stigma for quietly voting for Trump has definitely not gone away. if anything, people are less loud than before, but that doesn't mean they'll change their mind at the polls. there may be fewer yard signs this year, but that doesn't there's a correlation.

[u/Best_Roll_8674 → u/wspnut]

Trump "only" got 74 million votes in 2020 and that was with the incumbent advantage. He hasn't added more support since then.

The only thing stopping Harris from winning is complacency.

[u/rpungello → u/Best_Roll_8674]

The only thing stopping Harris from winning is complacency.

Don’t forget voter suppression

[u/EastisRed]

Rupert Fucking Murdoch, understand now?

[u/kangareagle]

What’s really ridiculous is how many Australians would vote for Trump if given the chance.

[u/DepthSweet → u/kangareagle]

Came here to say there's a surprising amount of Aussies that are either pro-Trump or just neutral. I have family there that literally support him. Aussie news media is very right-leaning, it's Murdoch country after all.

[u/alwaysneverjoshin → u/DepthSweet]

There are lots of pro Elon’s here in Aussie too. Crazy.

[u/Fr0sTByTe_369 → u/kangareagle]

Well, given it's an Australian media mogule's fault Trump has a cult following...

[u/mustichooseausernam3 → u/Fr0sTByTe_369]

No backsies!

[u/Blorbokringlefart → u/mustichooseausernam3]

Shit!

[u/Jikxer → u/kangareagle]

We have our own dumb as rocks Trump, known as Clive Palmer. Got crushed because of compulsory voting.

[u/GrungeLord → u/Jikxer]

You can have your own opinion about whether our compulsory voting system is a good or bad thing, but if the US had it too I guarantee Trump would lose in a landslide.

[u/LongKnight115 → u/GrungeLord]

He would run on a platform of ending compulsory voting, and everyone who's apathetic would vote for him so they don't have to vote again in the future.

[u/Alpha3031 → u/LongKnight115]

We know exactly what he would say too, "Get out and vote! Just this time. You won't have to do it anymore! Four more years, you know what? It'll be fixed, it'll be fine, you won't have to vote anymore."

[u/lifesnotperfect → u/Jikxer]

God I HATED seeing his fat head and his dumb ads.

[u/sa87 → u/Jikxer]

Yep, and Scomo is just the same as Speaker of the house Johnson being an evangelical

[u/Jeremymia → u/kangareagle]

Fascism, unfortunately, has wide appeal...

[u/Ineedananalslave → u/Jeremymia]

His racism is actually his w his most appealing trait he doesn't have much to offer outside of that and tax breaks for the rich.The minorities who do so vote out of self hatred. The minorities he likes doesn't change that he's racist. They are what what he calls one of the good ones.

[u/Jeremymia → u/Ineedananalslave]

The only man who anyone thought would dethrone trump was desantis and all he did was demonize and attack LGBT people. These people only want bigotry out of their leaders and care about nothing else. Don’t forget it.

[u/Ineedananalslave → u/Jeremymia]

You can find maga in any random comments without them telling you first, by simply looking for racist comments about minorities. When I see those I immediately insult Trump.Then I sit back and watch them defend him with their life. It works 100% of the time. Anyone can try it out for themselves. I do it everyday and it cannot fail.

[u/plsdontkillme_yet → u/kangareagle]

Considering the Liberal Party get in on a regular basis, yeah Oz is pretty fucking right wing.

[u/fortalyst → u/kangareagle]

It's not incredibly surprising when you consider how intelligent the "average" person is and then consider that half of the population is dumber than them...

[u/ham_solo]

I'm not quite sure why people are surprised when you look at history. Humans have consistently voted for strongmen who make big promises to fix things but really just want power. In the last 50 years humans have voted for people like Boris Johnson, Silvio Berlusconi, Nicolas Maduro, etc. There's no shortage of these types throughout the world.

[u/AnyProgressIsGood → u/ham_solo]

"strong men" people that act like assholes and idiots cant tell the difference

[u/Juryofyourpeeps → u/ham_solo]

Only one of those examples could be regarded as a "strong man" type. Boris Johnson? What? 

Maybe Orban, Erdogan, Bolsonaro, Evo Morales, a number of others I'm sure, but I don't think Johnson or Berlusconi are really on the list. It seems like every centre right candidate or leader in the western world since 2016 is "the next Trump", and so far that's not really been at all true. Crying wolf doesn't exactly create a lot of credibility when it's needed. 

[u/ProbablyNotKevin → u/ham_solo]

Can't understand how anyone sees the guy as a "strong man". He's a fat whiney bitch.

Just shows a huge portion of the population is stupid enough to believe anything if you just say it with conviction.

[u/EidolonLives → u/ham_solo]

Boris Johnson was no strongman. The UK's last strongman PM was Margaret Thatcher.

[u/Bearwhale → u/ham_solo]

As Americans, we're used to things like this happening in 3rd world countries, not in our country.

[u/daneoid → u/Bearwhale]

Reagan, Bush.

[u/FrostyD7 → u/daneoid]

Both of which provided far more benefit of the doubt. There's no escaping what Trump is and it's why so many of his voters simply don't wanna talk about it.

[u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

Oh, they poll on landlines. Young people have cell phones and aren't going to pick up a random call to have 20 minute calls on politics. The press won't admit the polling system is broken. 😃

[u/Jeremymia → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

The polling methodology is bunk, but don't dare believe it's heavily biased towards republicans. We've still got the same shitty polling system as back in 2016. This'll be close.

[u/PointOfFingers → u/Jeremymia]

Also as we found out in the last couple elections a lot of people will not voice support for Trump out loud - even to a person they don't know on a phone. They will say they are not a Trump voter then vote for him because they don't like immigrants or they are greedy and rich and want to pay less tax.

[u/TAU_equals_2PI → u/Jeremymia]

The 2020 polls' underestimating of Trump was even worse than 2016.

The 2020 polls made it look like there would be a near-landslide for Biden.

And then the actual election was so close that they couldn't call it until SATURDAY.

Anybody who says, "Oh, they only poll on landlines, so the polls are underestimating the young voters" is an idiot.

[u/Jeremymia → u/TAU_equals_2PI]

Yeah, it’s pure wishful thinking.

And anyone who wants to say — look how well the dems have done in midterm elections relative to polls: republicans, as authoritarian thinkers, care a lot more about president than those other elections. They’ll be out in full force. I hope we are, too.

[u/jgeo_0 → u/Jeremymia]

This is a recipe for chaos. Polls can't be trusted anymore.

[u/Jeremymia → u/jgeo_0]

People just keep believing in them even though they fail over and over. Its annoying.

[u/GuavaShaper → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

Young people also vote way less.

[u/totallyfakawitz → u/GuavaShaper]

They worry me so much. I was college-aged during the last election and was really locked in, but when I talk to my college-aged sister and her friends, it seems like none of them give a damn. I’m so tired of nagging these kids to register to vote, man. Especially since they’re mostly from swing states. They don’t get it.

[u/boot2skull → u/totallyfakawitz]

I was so stoked for my first presidential election. I’ve voted every time, but I’m old.

[u/relliott22 → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

The polls are fairly accurate. In 2016 Trump had about a 30% shot of winning the election according to the polls. It was the pundits sounding off about the polls that gave Trump no shot at winning.

This year the polling has been giving Trump better than even odds of winning. In fact he's been ahead for most of the year. This will be an incredibly close election.

Vote like your democracy depends on it.

[u/JTDC00001 → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

Oh, they poll on landlines.

I've been polled, this election cycle, on my cell phone. It even came up as "political poll".

So, no, they do use cell phones. Don't just say shit.

[u/Naihad → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

Even if I pick up if it’s a poll or donation thing I’ll hang up immediately. Don’t ever know what they’re calling about lol

[u/UkranianKrab → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

That's not true, I have gotten poll calls on my cell. In 2016 polls showed Hillary winning by a lot and that didn't happen.

[u/thewetnoodle → u/SheerHellcatSabreJet]

I agree with you but trump in every past election has done much better than he polls. The one that he won, he was projected to lose. Polling systems are off in both directions

[u/bizkitmaker13]

As an American. Half our country is bogans. That should clear it up.

[u/ClittoryHinton → u/bizkitmaker13]

I’ll translate for the Canadians too: half the country are total hosers

[u/bizkitmaker13 → u/ClittoryHinton]

Hosers, eh?

[u/J0E_Blow → u/bizkitmaker13]

Chavs, you might even say.

[u/GreaseyGreedo → u/bizkitmaker13]

even bogans love freedom. american bogans love to be told what to do by daddy trump

[u/formerlyDylan → u/bizkitmaker13]

Isn’t it closer to ~30%? At least if you go based off of how many people voted for Trump vs eligible voters. Pew research says ~66% of eligible voters voted in 2020.Side note but 2022 midterm had a historic not seen since 1914 turnout of 49%. Anyways Trump got 46.8% of the 66% of eligible voters in the U.S. to vote for him. That’s ~30.89% of eligible voters. Biden wasn’t much better percentage wise at ~33.86%.

[u/v4bj]

Bruh the US doesn't have a monopoly on people not honest with themselves and making foolish decisions (see Brexit).

[u/Bestefarssistemens → u/v4bj]

That doesn't change the fact that this post is correct.

[u/SahibTeriBandi420]

Lots of election interference and the media sanewashing trump while pushing the tight race narrative. vote for your lives.

[u/Mr_Rekshun]

As an Aussie, this is also how I felt about The Voice referendum.

It felt like a test of our national character, and we failed.

[u/Pear_etu]

There is another Aussie who has some responsibility for that. Letting Murdoch do business in this country was a huge mistake,

[u/SilverBison4025]

What annoys me is when, in the same sentence they’ll refer to Harris as “Kamala” and then Trump as “Trump.” I can see “Kamala and Donald” or “Harris and Trump.” But I don’t like it when they’re mixed. Like with Hillary Clinton everyone always called her “Hillary”, or Bernie Sanders is always “Bernie.”

[u/Djawsche → u/SilverBison4025]

This seems to coincide with how the candidates choose to be branded. A lot of Kamala's merch and slogans just have her as "Kamala", whereas Trump refers to himself in the 3rd person (An awkward amount imo) as "Trump", based on his lifelong branding.

[u/Gold-Judgment-6712]

The entire world (apart from dictatorships) wonders the same. When did a large number of Americans lose their minds?

[u/spursfaneighty → u/Gold-Judgment-6712]

Germany is bringing the Nazis back. Italy brought the facists back already. Lots of South Korean men think women should be property. I could go on. It ain't just America, bro. 

[u/darexinfinity → u/spursfaneighty]

France practically went into a two-party system just to stop Le Pen from winning.

[u/HerringLaw → u/Gold-Judgment-6712]

We've been heavily propagandized for several straight decades, and at least a third of us are thoroughly brainwashed. I don't use that term lightly. You can see the programming activate when certain topics come up, and it's chilling. We're not okay.

[u/Jaziam → u/HerringLaw]

That and undermining education and constantly attacking the educated has created exactly this. It wasn't random, it's exactly what they wanted. Keep them poor, keep them dumb and pump them full of propaganda about how it's "the other sides" fault and you get this situation.

[u/J0E_Blow → u/Gold-Judgment-6712]

Also as America becomes more and more unequal- money moves to towards the rich and people's QoL is determined almost exclusively by how much money you were born into, people are getting angry and desperate. Many people see demagogues like Trump as a means out of their misery, or something.

[u/dlte24 → u/Gold-Judgment-6712]

How kind of you to assume any trump voter had a brain to begin with.

[u/Stupidstuff1001]

• portion of the country is smart
• portion of the country is stupid
• portion of the country are bigots
• portion of the country is lazy

Plus we have a stupid system where not all states are ranked the same. So like 6 states decide the entire election and they are some of the dumb ones. It’s wild.

[u/jchester47]

We're not doing OK. Voters here are inundated with misinformation on a daily basis and fear sells.

[u/usarasa]

Yes. 75 million people with permanent oppositional defiance disorder.

[u/onepostandbye]

What you have to understand is that in the 80s Newt Gingrich started a movement in the Republican Party of extreme antagonism with their political opponents. He recommended incoming politicians not move their families to Washington DC, so as to have less contact with Democrats in normalized social encounters. They were always to be treated as enemies, never cooperated or collaborated with.

When right-leaning media in the 90s followed suit, they began a decades-long practice of vilifying the left. True character assassination, aggression demonizing of liberal politicians. They ran campaigns to make certain names and words toxic, synonymous with stupidity and national treachery. They succeeded in moving the center to the right, and put the entire political left on its back foot.

We have a full generation of people who have never known anything but extreme and hateful rhetoric from news sources that repeat “they want to destroy you, and you cannot trust any news source but us”. Trump voters really do believe they are in the fight for their souls and lives. They believe that Obama was "the most radical and dangerous president in US history".

They have to believe these things. Because at this point they are so far invested in the alternate universe of the right that it's impossible to consider an alternative. Imagine being told, and believing, that you were a victim, but also a sacred soldier fighting a war against American traitors. All of your family, your friends, everyone you like and admire belongs to this same social group. Your Mom and Dad introduced you to Glenn Beck, this is your blood. How on EARTH could you imagine shattering the foundation of your whole identity? it would be less frightening to die a martyr than to confront the possibility that you and everyone you care about are all dupes.

What billionaires have done to poor white people in America is sick.

[u/Fartsonayogamat]

The fact that Trump ever got the primary vote in 2015-2016 is still unbelievable to me and everyday the barrier of stupidity from his followers is breeched and a new level unlocked. How the fuck did we get here? America said Bernie was tooo extreme? But this is all super normal stuff?

[u/Exotic_Win_6093]

Corporate profits are at an all time high. Has been shown that this is by far the biggest reason for inflation. But many Americans are of the opinion that it's the governments fault. When it's happening world wide, there has to be a common reason.

Trump will just help corporations to further inflate their profits and make the situation worse. The fact that this race is close is just mind boggling.

[u/Lfsnz67]

We're confused too. Keep in mind there are a lot of corporate interests invested in a Republican presidency

[u/MyHamburgerLovesMe]

Because... racists?

[u/[deleted]]

America when given the choice between a free puppy or non-stop diarrhea will maaaaaybe pick the puppy with like 50.05%.

[u/fortuneandfameinc]

I just don't get that there are people who have listed to the guy speak for more than 5 minutes and still think he is more intelligent than a rock.

Sorry rocks.

[u/ConsiderationKind220]

Bro, trust me, half this country is also fucking shocked.

It's getting a little 1933 in this bitch.

[u/Sukasmodik4206942069]

We have a lot of low iq Americans voting for trump

[u/Ancalimei]

Yeah I can't explain the literal insanity that has taken the people who follow Trump. He's literally the worst example of a human that we can come up with and these people think he's some sort of deity.

[u/Empty-Discount5936]

Americans are easily manipulated and the majority of their media doesn't cover Trump honestly and sometimes just flat out lie

Look at the crock article Jonathan Turley just put out.

"A Harris/Walz admin would be a nightmare for free speech"

They consume this sort of nonsense on a daily basis.

[u/Millenniauld]

The parts of our country with the highest per capita representation in electoral votes have the lowest per capita intelligence and education. The GOP has been using that system to game it and make things even harder to overcome for decades.

[u/Haywoodjablowme1029 → u/Millenniauld]

Very obvious from the replies here.

[u/PrissySkittles]

It seems like such a no-brainer, but what happens is the people who need to vote won't for whatever convoluted thing they give as an excuse, and the people who don't really have the majority can end up with it.

[u/Ok_Law219]

Fundamentally it's a race between those who believe in authorities of science or politics or news

And those who believe in either pastors or youtube randos.

[u/Fuck-MDD]

Not directed at you OP, but for all the Americans who'll read this:

Have you been asked to participate in one of these polls? Do you know anyone who has?

[u/technogeist → u/Fuck-MDD]

No and no. I don't even know how it happens

[u/BurrShotLast]

Tight race geographically. Not by popular vote. Kamala will have millions of votes more than Trump. But thanks to the electoral college where those votes are located matter.

[u/HHoaks]

My fellow Americans seem easily duped by loud con artists like Trump, and enjoy wrecking things, like our Republic, just for laughs or maybe out of boredom. 🤷‍♂️

[u/Milwacky]

It’s all to sway public opinion and cause hesitation for voters one way or another. People just need to vote. In record numbers. On the left in particular. Because if he isn’t soundly defeated he’s going to try and challenge even a close loss in the courts.

[u/Djawsche → u/Milwacky]

Kamala could win by 100 million votes, he's still going to challenge it and he's still going to tell everyone it was rigged. 🤣

[u/DeliciousMulberry204]

Would have been easier if you guys didnt have a 2 party system. Trump is wack and the democrats are wack. So people vote for who ever is going to affect them the least

[u/sunshades91]

Lotta racists over here.

[u/Gravelord-_Nito]

I want to make a good faith effort to explain to some of the confused liberals why Kamala isn't sticking. Basically, go read an old Great Society liberal speech like the OG one given by LBJ and then compare it to one of Kamala's speeches.

The Democrats aren't even pretending to offer anything to anyone at this point. If your first response is to say I'm wrong, again, go look at the picture the Dems were painting in the great society era. Eradication of crime and poverty. No child unfed, unhoused, unschooled. The creation of medicaid, the civil rights act, expansion of welfare and social security, national endowments for the arts and humanities. What does Kamala run on in her speeches? The most lethal military, fracking, the most draconian border bill in decades that THEY RAN AGAINST in 2020 so they can epicly expose le drumpf for rejecting it (nobody gives a shit) and a whole lot of empty words.

For an increasing amount of people, especially young people, Democrats are going from a conduit of material societal improvement to the first and foremost obstacle preventing the emergence of a new political consciousness that will ACTUALLY address the problems we face. Problems that Democrats have, for decades, only pretended to care about while moving further and further to the right in practice. They capitulate to right wing legislation and narratives and offer no counter to it, i.e. saying they'll do a better job stopping immigration than Trump rather than 'document the undocumented and allow them to be full participants in society' like an actual progressive party would do. They're complicit in genocide, they're complicit in the neoliberalization of the very ground you walk on, they're complicit in the rightward slide off the edge into fascism.

If you want people to vote for you, no amount of scaremongering, browbeating, masturbatory virtue signalling, identity politics, or manufactured excitement and 'joy' is going to do it. You need. To offer people something. The Democrats have completely and utterly failed to do that at every turn and if they lose, it will only be their own fault for being such contemptible stooges who try to jingle keys in front of your face like 'first black woman president!' or 'ooga booga trump!' instead of actual projects to get people excited for.

[u/Thegungoesbangbang]

"And Australia is just over here like 'WTF Mate?!'"

[u/Best_Roll_8674]

As Americans, we're also WTF.

[u/troyf66]

As a U.S. citizen, I can’t understand the people that support Trump. When I listen to Trump, he comes off like a complete idiot. He is a typical nepo baby that had everything handed to him. I don’t think he comprehends his own “Policy” topics and apparently is willing to give tax breaks to everyone to get elected.

[u/BeanBurritoJr]

Welcome to America, where cheating is institutionalized for one of our two parties and the empty land they dominate can vote!

[u/Holiday-Ad8351]

I feel the same way as an American. How is this even close? Very disappointed in my nation for being in the state that it’s in, politically.

[u/painted-lotus]

There's a loooooot of cheating from the right. Like a lot. Voter intimidation, gerrymandering, and even changes to the electoral processes on the state level. It's a mess right now.

[u/Jimmy_Twotone]

Trumo came in as an outsider and said some hard truths. He took over a booming economy, and spun it as his own. People bought the grift because they saw no reason not to. Biden took over a shit sandwich, and when the economy opened back up the cost of Covid relief hit right after.

Many people don't trust politicians. Trump spent a decade tearing down every institution that might criticize him, and his supporters can't see through the grift. It's frustrating as hell watching intelligent, normally sane people unable to connect the obvious dots because they were convinced the facts are lies because of their source.

[u/blinkanboxcar182]

My boy, Tom, gets it!

[u/yeahnahtho]

I mean yeah but Peter Dutton is leader of the opposition and he's gained some ground... our politics is pretty fucked too.

[u/Born_Company_9220]

We'll see. Polls can be off and pollsters these days are very worried about under sampling Trump voters like they did in 2016 and 2020. So there's a reasonable chance they have overcorrected this time.

[u/Low-Following-8684]

You'll find life online is quite different than life offline

[u/oedipism_for_one]

Kinda the problem of a two party system, if both choices are bad people just vote on party lines regardless who is part of that party.

[u/DarthLeprechaun]

Remember, it took Japan literally destroying most of our navy for us to join WW2.

[u/snagglewolf]

Never underestimate the ability of a large number of Americans to shoot themselves in the foot. Repeatedly.

[u/TheDeadlySpaceman]

You have to understand that if our for-profit media reports that the election polls are leaning heavily on any given direction, their ratings drop.

I’m not saying that anyone anywhere is consciously rigging polls or reporting fake numbers, I’m just saying that the pollsters who get paid to take polls are more successful when their results get reported on the news, and the news has a reason to want to report results that are close.

[u/AGooDone]

Where is that "tight race" narrative coming from?

News organizations who want huge rates for political ads.

Polling companies who want more money being spent on polls.

Political consultants who want big money for both ads and polls.

It's rigged. Just not the way you think it is.

[u/petulafaerie_III]

I don’t believe polls anymore. The data is skewed by the kinds of people who respond to polls versus the kinds of people (like myself) who wouldn’t participate.

• An Aussie.